2019 Forecast: It May Be Later Than You Think
After the sharp decline in December and equal recovery in January, investors can be forgiven for believing that the financial markets are back to normal after a slight hiccup. While…
Market Inefficiencies Redux: How Falling Prices Do Not Indicate Future Value
On the surface, it is irrational for people to clamor to buy stocks at their highs, and avoid them at their lows: same stocks, same companies, different prices. The change…
Living Through the First Correction In Ten Years
On a typical day, about one half of one percent of all shares of stock in this country changes hands. Depending on whether there are more sellers than buyers or…
Changing of the Guard: How Market Corrections Lead to New Favorites Going Forward
Regarding the overall market averages, October undid most of the progress for stocks for the calendar year. Regarding the stocks that have led the advance over the past five years,…
Focus on the Decade that Matters: The Next Ten Years
September 2018 has seen a plethora of stories regarding the tenth anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers, an investment firm that had been around for over 100 years before…
Think 2018 Elections Polarized? Look out to 2040: How Demographics Impacts Elections
Two of the past four presidential elections were settled in the electoral college, leading to wins of two candidates who did not collect the majority of votes overall but did…
Show of Hands: Who is Not the Offspring of Immigrants?
Except for Native American Indians and African-Americans brought here by force in slavery, everyone in this country has immigrant roots. The invectives lobbied against earlier waves of immigrants is a…
As Trump’s Trade War Evolves: Less Focus, More Uncertainty Puts Pressure on Markets and Economy
Eight weeks ago, economists did not rank a trade war as a significant disruptor of the US economy. Now, many economists think the trade war policy, engaged by the current…
Why There is no Such Thing As a “Lovely Little Trade War”: The President Plays with Fire
As it is told by the usual “unnamed sources”, the President started last Thursday in a foul mood. He had just lost his confidant, Hope Hicks, who, a day after…
Back When a 500 Point Decline Meant Something: 1987 vs. 2018
Those of us who have been around a while recall, seldom fondly, the 500 point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Averages on Monday, October 19, 1987. On that day,…