Students of finance become acquainted with what is taught to be the “risk-free rate.” This is the return that can be obtained by investing in securities of the United States Treasury. Usually, the five-or ten-year treasury yield is counted as the benchmark rate, with potential returns taken as some increment of this rate.
Today, we are witnessing another transition. Through the internet, hundreds of thousands of unversed speculators are being harnessed to focus on a few stocks.
The financial press is awash in predictions as to how the stock market will perform under a Biden presidency. Implied in these predictions is a belief that who occupies the Oval Office will impact the stock market. The record of this is more one of coincidence than causality.
This year will be best recalled as one where the economy went down, and the stock market went up. After suffering a 30 percent contraction in March and April, the GDP came back forcefully in the summer, only to fade out in the closing months of the year.
As the Coronavirus continues to stalk the land, killing at last count over 260,000 Americans, word of at least three vaccines have been delivered for FDA approval.
Many investors have decided to wait until the election is decided before investing in the stock market. Based on history, there is a two-to-one chance; this is a bad idea.